高校数学の質問スレ（医者・東大卒禁止） Part438 (103ﾚｽ)
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83(2): 06/17(火)14:05 ID:55inaklO(1/2) AAS
コインを5回投げて5回表だったとき、表が出やすいコインと断定してよい確率を算出せよ。

More concretely, suppose we are interested in learning about the proba-
bility that a special coin lands heads when tossed. A priori we believe that
the coin is fair, so we assign θ an N (0, .25) prior. We toss the coin n = 5
times and obtain y = 5 heads.
Approximate the probability that the coin is biased toward heads.

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84: 06/17(火)14:06 ID:55inaklO(2/2) AAS
>>83
前提：
Suppose y has a binomial distribution with parameters n and p, and we
are interested in the log-odds value θ = log (p/(1 − p)) . Our prior for θ is
that θ ∼ N (μ, σ).

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