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773: 大家 (ﾜｯﾁｮｲ 3fbf-RZ1l) [] 09/15(月)06:45 ID:T39nVriT0(1/3)
Burnt Fingers: What if the $3 Trillion AI Investment Surge Turns Sour?
An Investment Boom of Historic Scale
Artificial intelligence has already become the focus of one of the largest investment waves in modern times. In 2025, major American technology firms are expected to allocate close to $400 billion to the infrastructure required for running advanced AI systems. Leading developers such as OpenAI and Anthropic continue to raise capital at breakneck speed, with their combined valuations nearing $500 billion. Analysts now forecast that, by 2028, global spending on data-center construction will surpass $3 trillion.
The amounts involved are so enormous that the obvious question arises: what happens when the bill comes due? Even if AI ultimately delivers on its potential, many investors will not see their money back. And if the technology underperforms, the fallout could be sharp and painful.
The Logic of the Race
Investors have always chased promising innovations, but the rush into AI is even more intense than many past bubbles. Optimists claim that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—systems outperforming humans across most intellectual tasks—could be only a few years away. The firm that reaches that goal first might capture rewards beyond imagination. At the same time, few investors believe they know which company or model will prevail. To move too cautiously risks being irrelevant altogether.
That logic has fueled an all-out arms race. Technology giants are pouring money into computing capacity for ever-larger models. Ancillary industries—from real estate developers to electricity suppliers—are being pulled in as well. Oracle, for example, recently reported bold expectations for its AI-related cloud division, sending its stock surging and briefly lifting its founder Larry Ellison to the top of the global wealth rankings.
774: 大家 (ﾜｯﾁｮｲ 3fbf-RZ1l) [] 09/15(月)06:45 ID:T39nVriT0(2/3)
The Inevitable Losses
Regardless of the outcome, heavy losses are unavoidable. In the most optimistic scenario, AGI might arrive and trigger extraordinary global growth, perhaps on the order of 20% a year. Some shareholders would reap staggering profits, but many others would not.
More realistic outcomes suggest disappointment. Technologies often develop in unexpected ways. In the late 19th century, America’s electricity industry moved decisively to alternating current, leaving direct-current firms stranded. Today’s investors assume that success depends on building the largest models. Yet, early adopters are increasingly turning to smaller systems, hinting that computing intensity might not be the decisive factor.
Alternatively, adoption could proceed more slowly than projected. Technical shortcomings, difficulties in rapidly expanding electricity supply, or corporate inertia might slow things down. If earnings expectations are revised downward, financiers may pull back. The funding stream could shrink, and many start-ups might collapse under mounting losses.
If the Boom Stalls
A slowdown would expose the fragility of much of today’s expenditure. After Britain’s railway mania in the 19th century, its tunnels and tracks still served passengers for generations. The fiber-optic networks laid during the dot-com era continue to transmit data today. By contrast, the AI surge may leave behind far less lasting value. The shells of data centers and expanded power capacity could be repurposed, but most spending has gone into servers and specialized chips, which quickly become outdated.
775: 大家 (ﾜｯﾁｮｲ 3fbf-RZ1l) [] 09/15(月)06:46 ID:T39nVriT0(3/3)
Fortunately, the financial system is sturdier than in earlier busts. Previous technology crashes triggered banking crises, but today’s data-center boom has largely been financed by the profits of the tech giants themselves. Firms such as Meta are issuing debt to help fund new investments, but their existing cash flow and balance sheets remain strong. Private-market lenders—drawing funds from wealthy individuals and institutions—are eager to provide financing. Venture capital and sovereign-wealth funds, rather than small depositors, bear the risks tied to start-ups.
Hidden Fragilities
Still, vulnerabilities could emerge. As the wave spreads, financing structures may become riskier and weaker firms could be drawn in. Utilities, for instance, are racing to expand electricity supply for AI; a highly leveraged power company could easily overextend itself.
America’s wider economy is also at stake. One estimate suggests that AI investment alone accounted for roughly 40% of U.S. GDP growth in the past year, a striking figure for a sector that contributes only a few percent of output. If projects are cut back or abandoned, the knock-on effects—fewer data centers built and fewer jobs created—would be severe.
Market Consequences and Wealth Effects
Stock-market declines would magnify the damage. Because valuations of AI-linked companies have soared, investors’ portfolios are now heavily concentrated in a small set of technology giants. Households also hold more equities than they did in 2000. A downturn would erode confidence and consumer spending. The poorest households would feel little direct effect, as they own few stocks, but affluent families—whose spending has propped up U.S. consumption—would rein in outlays. Combined with tariffs and elevated interest rates, the loss of this support would sap the economy’s strength.
The Larger Lesson
The bigger the boom, the bigger the risks when momentum falters. If AI ultimately delivers on the extravagant promises made for it, the world will enter a new economic chapter. Yet the story of the feverish pursuit of that dream—whether triumphant or tragic—will itself become part of history.
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