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464: (ｱｳｱｳ Sa7f-dr7e) 2016/07/08(金)21:51 ID:TDMRLKgZa(1/4) AAS
ちょっと古いけど、ディープ牡馬ラキ珍指数
◆Colts Fluke Index (CFI)◆
Open Article published on line on 22 Apr 2016 by @boba_oudou
◆Introduction
A "strong horse" cannot be defined easily, but one requirement would be whether he can win G1 race even when he is marked by all the other horses, - like the NaritaBrian and the Orfevre.
A horse is marked by the others, e.g. when he is the 1st favorite in the race.
Here I show my new index to find which sire's son is a fluke or not.
◆Methods
-Averages of Win Odds payments (yen,\) of all G1 races by each sire's sons were calculated, and defined as Colts Fluke Index (CFI).
-Here, CFIs were calculated as for 4 representative sires in Japan, i.e. Sunday Silence, King Kamehameha, Stay Gold and Deep Impact.
-Then u-tests were performed for statistical significance between DI and the others.
-And some more analyses were added as for the data shown in Excel and their hierarchial clustering.
◆Results
CFI (+- SE) of each sire is as below.
SS, 716.019 +- 139.625.
KK, 451.944 +- 78.488.
SG, 649.444 +- 197.483.
DI, 1416.667 +- 352.341.
SS without DI (as a race horse) due to failing a doping test, 805.246 +- 156.417.
p-values between DI and other sires are 0.0084, 0.0071, 0.0198, 0.0282, respectively as shown in figure, which prove strong significances.
The data in Excel are clustered by Ward's Methods by use of R software.
◆Discussion
CFIs have clearly shown that SS, KK and SG have borne much stronger colts than DI.
These results have been also confirmed by hierarchial clustering.
Notice, if SS had not had DI (as a race horse) due to failing a doping test, its CFI would have hardly influenced.
This fact also suggests that if DI (as a stallion) could have a strong colts in the future, my indexes would be hardly influenced either.
(ED)
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